Cy-Fair is LoneStarVolleyball’s pick to win Region 3.

Scott White is the editor of
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First, let’s get this out of the way as we do every year. In response to all the e-mails: YES warmup matches count. They count toward a team’s won-loss record so they count in our rankings. Some other polls don’t consider them, but at this point in the season we think they are an excellent measure of where teams are as they enter the playoffs. This is especially true since it's often the first tough opposition many teams have faced since before the start of district.

Having said that, we warned you last week that some good warmup matches would likely cause movement in this week’s rankings. And they did.

Before we get to that, however, it’s time to set the table for the playoffs. Back in August, we said that it was going to be difficult for Amarillo to become the first team in over two decades to win back-to-back 5A titles. And if tournament season proved anything, it was that it is going to be difficult for the Sandies to repeat. Even the Amarillo players know they have a tough task ahead.

Our prediction is that they will do it. But the pressure this team will face over the next few weeks will get more intense as each round of the playoffs passes. If they make it through the Region 1 wars, the pressure in San Marcos will be thick as fog. The other three teams will have nothing to lose. They will be the challengers and can play free and easy.

The Sandies, on the other hand, have been the favorites since last year and they have a chance to accomplish something few teams have done.

But...having watched these athletes take on the state and nation’s best since they were freshman, repeatedly overcoming challenges and obstacles in the process, if anyone can handle the pressure, it is this group.

And if our predictions hold up, and Amarillo, Westlake and Cy-Fair all advance to San Marcos, this year’s state tournament is guaranteed to be an instant classic.

What about Region 2, you ask? Well, let’s just take a quick look at each of the regions.

Region 1 - Amarillo is the clear favorite. The Sandies have lost only two matches in two years and proved during tournament season that they won’t be beaten easily. The team with the best chance to knock them off would seem to be Coppell, which is loaded with D1 players and had match point on the Sandies at Duncanville. But Coppell has a very tough playoff path, likely facing two Arlington schools before they could get to Amarillo, which has beaten them twice this season.

"A lot of competition," setter Elaine Minden told David Hinojosa of the Dallas Morning News.

And Coppell enters the playoffs coming off a loss to Flower Mound Marcus. TMeanwhile Arlington and Martin have both had their moments (and non-moments) this season. And they know how to win in the playoffs.

Region 2 - This one is wide open. The bottom line is that it’s going to come down to who can put together solid back-to-back matches in Huntsville. Allen, Plano West, Round Rock and Magnolia all return key players from teams that were there last year, but each has also had problems at times against top competition. At one point Lake Highlands looked to be the team to beat, but a late season slide has raised huge questions marks over the Wildcats’ potential. McNeil has proven they can beat anyone in the region (warning to Magnolia in round two), but may not have the overall depth to make a complete run through the playoffs.

Our prediction is that it will come down to West and Magnolia -- two teams that are almost identical in size and firepower. And two teams that have had ball control issues against elite teams. If that turns out to be the case, we’re going with Magnolia in what has the potential to be even wilder a match as last year’s final between Allen and West. That was the one in which West repeatedly seemed to have the match won, only to see it slip away in an amazing game five comeback by Allen.

Region 3 - This is a region filled with about 10 evenly matched teams who can beat each other. And then there is Cy-Fair. Other than Amarillo and Arlington, Cy-Fair's two losses, no one has really come close to knocking them off and it would be a stunning upset if it happens. Of course most of the focus is on Nneka Ogwumike, and she is an incredibly special talent and a non-stop highlight package. But she is not the reason Cy-Fair has the potential to not only win the region but also knock off both Westlake and Amarillo in San Marcos.

As we pointed out in August, what turned this team from just another good Region 3 team to a great one is the addition of Lacy Hayes at setter. Lacy is one of the state’s best and she has a lot of weapons in players like Cambrey Oehler, Allicia Garza and Ashley Vander Hey. Cy-Fair also has one of the premier back row players in Leah Olsen.

Pearland, now that they are healthy, would seem to have the best shot at unseating Cy-Fair but Pearland has struggled recently in some of their wins.

Region 4 - This region, like regions 3 and 1, is filled with a lot of good teams and an exceptional one. Since knocking off Amarillo in the Pearland finals, no one has come close to slowing down the Chaps and we can’t imagine it happening any time soon. In fact, a tie-breaker state championship match between Amarillo and Westlake, whose only losses are to each other, would be one you would not want to miss. It would be reminiscent of the Westlake-Martin finals a couple of years ago when Westlake’s huge, enthusiastic crowd was as entertaining as the drama on the court. Churchill, Reagan and Smithson Valley all have the talent to make good playoff runs, but it would be a major upset if any knock off the Chaps.

When it comes to the 4As, there are so many state-tournament caliber teams that whichever four make it San Marcos are guaranteed to be worthy regional champions. Midway, which had been the highest-ranked 4A team for most of the season, had its 41-match win streak snapped last week and they fall from the Top 20 after losing to Vista Ridge.

Our prediction is that when all is said and done, there will be a new 4A champion. And we also predict that champion will come from New Braunfels. We really liked what we saw of the big, young Unicorns in Pearland, but back in August we said we liked their arch-rival, Canyon, and we still do. Our guess is that they will meet in the regional finals and the winner will go on to claim yet another title for the folks in New Braunfels.

As for the other classifications, Wimberley may not have the depth and firepower of last year’s championship team but until someone knocks them off we’re sticking with them. Saturday’s comeback win over Corpus Christi Carroll and last night’s win over Poth prove they have no shortage of talent. And if they make it to San Marcos, watch out. The Texans have lost only one match (in 1998) in six trips to the state tournament.

Both, of course, has proven that despite big losses to graduation they still pack a massive punch. They are the clear favorite in 2A. And we know that Wimberley is small and hasn’t been ranked #1 by the TGCA since early in the season. But they weren't happy about having their string of state titles snapped last year, and we just have a feeling about this team.

Which brings us to this week’s ranking of the top teams in Texas. As a note, now that the playoffs are here we no longer have a Team To Watch list. Every team still playing is a Team To Watch.
Enjoy the action!

Posted by TJ Aulds  at 11:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)